The 21st century will trigger significantly larger and more frequent storm surges and cloudbursts and require unprecedented climate adaptation. Climate modelling predicts that we must prepare for 100-year climate events to occur every 20 or 5 years - perhaps even more frequently. All assumptions for existing climate adaptation plans have, therefore, changed.
This is why DTU and the research network Navigating 360 are proposing the implementation of a 100-year plan for climate adaptation. It will be presented on Tuesday, 14 January, at the meeting 'FØR stormfloderne rammer' (i.e., before the storm surges hit) in Industriens Hus, the headquarters of the business organisation Danish Industry.
The meeting follows up on the analysis 'Når stormfloderne rammer' (When the storm surges hit, only available in Danish)' presented by DTU and Navigating 360 in October 2024 and DTU's subsequent analysis from November 2024 on the economic consequences of flooding financed by Insurance and Pension Denmark and the CIP Foundation. The calculations from November also showed that several billion could be saved by a quick and ambitious effort (see fact box).
The meeting is organised by Danish Industry, the Association of Consulting Engineers (FRI), five of the country's largest consulting companies (NIRAS, Rambøll, Cowi, WSP and Artelia), Local Government Denmark (KL), Insurance and Pension Denmark, the CIP Foundation, DTU and Navigating 360.
"DTU's analyses in recent months show that we need to be far more ambitious in climate adaptation than previously thought because we can predict significantly greater consequences of storm surges and cloudbursts in the future. In addition to damage to buildings, it's about the impact on business production, infrastructure in a broad sense, nature and cultural values," says Professor Kirsten Halsnæs from DTU.
"This also applies to how we include the biggest victims of climate disasters, namely the people who are unwittingly affected by heavy cloudbursts or storm surges and instantly lose their livelihoods - economically and socially. That's why the 100 Year Plan also proposes developing a contingency plan for citizen- and community-based climate adaptation."
Climate adaptation needs to be upgraded and rethought
The proposal for a 100-year plan has been developed in collaboration with several experts. These include Associate Professor Katrina Wiberg, Aarhus School of Architecture, who is leading a research project on climate adaptation. The project challenges all previous plans for building and landscape development and highlights the risks of building in coastal risk areas.
Climate professor Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen has also contributed. He justifies the proposal by saying that Denmark must establish a climate preparedness programme with the capacity to deal with climate disasters on a scale never seen before:
"As a starting point, it will be necessary to reassess and upgrade existing preparedness based on the risks that temperature increases of around 3 degrees will entail," he says.
Broad support for the 100-year plan
Representatives from the business community, insurance industry and NGOs will support the development of a 100-year plan for climate adaptation at the meeting:
"We agree with the need for a 100-year plan - that concrete action is needed in the short and medium term, but that it must prepare us for the long-term changes. The presentation is a good framework, which, of course, needs to be developed together, for example, concerning the crucial question of who will finance future climate adaptation and how," says Karin Klitgaard, Deputy Director of the Confederation of Danish Industry.
"We support the need for a 100-year plan, especially if it can address the economic challenges of financing, including possible changes to the storm surge scheme and how we can help the citizens who already live in the risk areas. But overall, it's about implementing an effective governance structure, ensuring the pace of decision-making processes and clarifying who pays," says Thomas Brenøe, Director of Insurance and Pension Denmark.
"There is no doubt that we urgently need to fundamentally reassess what climate adaptation is all about. All the calculations show this. However, they also document how much can be gained if we recognise the new conditions and implement ambitious plans to prevent the most serious consequences of climate change. In reality, we are facing perhaps the biggest societal task in Denmark this century. We are forced to solve it," says Erik Rasmussen, founder of Navigating 360.
